The Fed held. A liquidated 40x Bitcoin short flipped long, and is now 1% from liquidation
Scoring yesterday's calls
From publication at 03:00 UTC on Oct 28 to 05:00 UTC today.
| Call | What happened | Score |
|---|---|---|
| BTC: within 24 hours of the Fed, 81,683 before 78,951 | Two hours after the decision, at 20:00 UTC, Bitcoin hit 81,780. Low since then 79,668; 78,951 never touched. | ✓ |
| ETH: 0xb15b's remaining $6.19M short liquidated before Friday's close | At 08:20 UTC ETH reached 2,375 and the short was liquidated. | ✓ |
| HYPE: 84 first, then below 78, before Friday's close | High 82.39, low 78.09. Neither yet. | Open |
| SOL: no touch of 98.04 before Friday's close | Low 99.20. | Open |
| CoreWeave holds Monday's low of 51.21 through Friday | Low 58.56, now 60.76. | Open |
Both calls that settled were right. Two days running, nothing that came due was wrong.
Yesterday in one line
Bitcoin rose 0.5% to 81,319, ETH 0.4% to 2,358, HYPE fell 0.8% to 80.56, SOL rose 1.1% to 102.39. Hyperliquid liquidated $53.1M: $37.3M of shorts and $15.8M of longs, $10.2M of which came from the Google perp.
The Fed: no change, but two votes for a hike
At 18:00 UTC the Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4%. CNBC reports the vote was 10 to 2, and both dissenters, Cook and Hammack, wanted another quarter-point hike. The statement called inflation "elevated."
Bitcoin went up, then down. At 20:00 UTC it hit the day's high of 81,780, $97 above the 81,683 we named. Then it slid, to 79,668 at 02:45 UTC today. It's 80,212 now.
The liquidated 40x short flipped long
0x4b62…57ca is the 40x short we named yesterday, liquidation at 81,683.
- It didn't make it to the Fed. At 08:30 UTC Bitcoin reached 81,700 and $6.35M of its short was liquidated.
- It closed the rest itself. Ten minutes after the decision, at 18:10 UTC, it flipped long: $24.5M at an average 80,789.
- At 20:10 UTC it sold at 81,237 for a $151K profit. Fifteen minutes later it sent $270K out of the account.
- Then it came back. At 21:20 UTC it went long $13.7M again, at 81,399. Bitcoin kept falling, it trimmed twice, and it still holds an $8.7M 40x long, down $124K, liquidation 79,398, just 1.0% below the price.
The account has $270K left.
The biggest short left
Yesterday the largest band of short liquidations above Bitcoin, at 83,500 to 84,000, was almost all one wallet: 0xc3ed…00dd, short $32.3M at 30x.
It didn't wait to be liquidated, or for a lower price. It closed $8M at exactly 80,000 at 01:40 UTC today, and the remaining $24M at 79,873 at 03:40 UTC, for a $212K profit. The account is now empty.
0x01e2…e977, which added $20.8M of shorts the day before, is down to a $920K short at 1x.
One big short gone, one shrunk. At yesterday's close there were $53.9M of short liquidations within 5% above Bitcoin, $32.5M of them 0xc3ed's. With it gone, roughly $21M is left. Within 5% below there are $94.2M of long liquidations.
40x on both sides of Bitcoin
- 0.8% above: 0x92a7…3fea, 40x short $10.5M, liquidation 80,861. It laddered short orders from 81,202 to 81,702 yesterday.
- 1.0% below: 0x4b62, 40x long $8.7M, liquidation 79,398.
- 1.5% below: 0x2f59…d982, 40x long $10.7M, liquidation 78,978.
- 4.6% below: 0x0c4a…1b19 and 0xec4a…cf62, two 40x longs totaling $54.0M, both liquidating near 76,500.
- 6.8% below: 0x36cd…d195 added $16.1M yesterday and is now long $53.5M at 11x, liquidation 74,757.
Google: liquidated two minutes after earnings
Alphabet reported after the US close and fell about 10% after hours. The Google perp on Hyperliquid fell from 327.75 to 288.03, and the long held by 0x30af…393e was liquidated at 20:02 UTC, under two minutes after the report. Details in today's news: Alphabet misses, and the Google perp on Hyperliquid drops 9% in two minutes.
ETH, SOL and HYPE
ETH (2,320): after 0xb15b…dbae was liquidated yesterday morning, ETH spiked to 2,391 at 20:00 UTC and it closed the rest of its short at 2,388 for another $20K loss. At 01:50 UTC today it shorted again: $4.65M at 25x, entry 2,338, liquidation 2,348, 1.2% above the price. The account has $150K left.
On the other side, 0xe813…6d74 sold $64M of ETH longs yesterday and emptied the account. Large trades were net sellers of ETH by $37.5M, the most of any coin.
SOL (100.11): 0x13da…08be still holds a 20x long of $9.58M, liquidation 98.07, 2.0% below.
HYPE (79.07): still not a single large short liquidation within 10% above. Below, 0x9546…181c is long $10.9M at 10x, liquidation 73.90; 0x2ae2…78ae long $9.3M at 10x, liquidation 74.90.
Today's calls
Same rules: we call it, we score it tomorrow, right or wrong. Prices as of 05:00 UTC.
BTC (80,212): range 79,400 to 80,900, leaning down. Within 24 hours, 0x4b62's 79,398 is hit before 0x92a7's 80,861.
- Why: the biggest short above, 0xc3ed, took profit and left, and 0x01e2 cut its short to $920K. A push up has no short liquidations to feed on. Two officials want a hike, and Bitcoin fell 2% from its post-Fed high.
- Against us: 0x36cd added $16.1M of longs, and large trades were net buyers of Bitcoin by $52.6M yesterday. 0x92a7's 40x short is only 0.8% from liquidation, closer than 0x4b62.
ETH (2,320): 0xb15b survives to Friday's close. ETH's mark price doesn't touch 2,348.
- Why: large trades sold $37.5M of ETH yesterday, and 0xe813 sold $64M and left. Last time we bet it would be liquidated, and we were right. This time we bet it survives.
- Against us: it's only 1.2% from liquidation, and ETH rose more than 3% in an hour last night.
HYPE, SOL, CoreWeave: the existing calls stand and settle at Friday's close.
Live liquidation maps: BTC · ETH · HYPE · SOL · Google. Tap 🔔 next to a wallet's title to get a Telegram alert when it moves.
Data: Hyperliquid on-chain trades, liquidations, positions and account ledgers, compiled by CryptoAnimon. "Yesterday" = Oct 28, 2026 (UTC). Positions, liquidation prices and prices as of about 05:00 UTC on Oct 29. Large trades = single taker trades of $100K or more, excluding market makers and liquidation backstops. Scoring uses highs and lows from 03:00 UTC Oct 28 to 05:00 UTC Oct 29.
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