A 40x Bitcoin short cut by more than 80%. Bitcoin moved 0.02% on Saturday; 0x4b62 went from $18.3M to $3.2M, and 0x6c2c closed its short, then reopened $11.5M
Scoring our last calls
Scored as of November 8, 01:45 UTC. Bitcoin's range on Saturday was only 0.9%, and none of our open lines were touched.
| Call | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| SOL doesn't close a day above 100 before Sunday (Nov 5) | The last daily close before Sunday (Saturday's) was 89.78; the highest close in the window was 90.09. | ✓ |
| HYPE holds 75 until November 9 | Low 76.15. | Open |
| Bitcoin hits 73,500 before 79,500 by November 13 (Nov 6) | Since Nov 6, 22:00 UTC: high 76,235, low 75,549. | Open |
| ETH hits 2,170 before 2,400 by November 13 (Nov 6) | Same window: high 2,253, low 2,223. | Open |
| SOL hits 85.50 before 97.50 by November 13 (Nov 6) | Same window: high 90.64, low 88.69. | Open |
| Memes keep weakening until Bitcoin reaches 73,500 (Nov 6) | Memes fell broadly on Saturday: PUMP −5.0%, kPEPE −2.4%, TRUMP −1.5%. FARTCOIN is still up 2.9% since the call. | Open |
| Bitcoin hits 76,950 before 74,030 by Monday's close (Nov 7) | High 76,235, low 75,549. | Open, case weakened |
| ETH hits 2,291 before 2,182 by Tuesday's close (Nov 7) | High 2,251, low 2,223. | Open |
| SOL hits 92 before 87.21 by Tuesday's close (Nov 7) | High 90.62, low 88.69. | Open |
| HYPE holds 71.87 through November 13 (Nov 7) | Low 76.69. | Open |
One right, none wrong, nine open. We've marked the Bitcoin call "case weakened." Our main reason for 76,950 was 0x4b62's 40x short, and on Saturday it cut that position by more than 80%. Details below.
Saturday in one line
Bitcoin rose 0.02% to 75,850, trading only between 75,549 and 76,235. ETH rose 0.06% to 2,240, SOL fell 0.34% to 89.78, and HYPE fell 0.96% to 77.74.
Unlike Friday, leverage came off. Open interest across Hyperliquid fell 2.8% to $10.12B, and Bitcoin open interest fell 1.5% to $3.15B. Bitcoin funding is +11% annualized, so longs are paying.
Among large orders (single taker fills of $100K or more), Bitcoin buys were $82.0M and sells $81.9M, almost exactly even. ETH large orders were $15.1M net sold, 55% of the large-order total. HYPE was $3.0M net sold and SOL $1.1M.
On ETFs, Yahoo Finance, citing SoSoValue, put US spot Bitcoin ETF net outflows at $430.2M on Thursday and $411.9M on Friday. The same piece says Bitcoin has traded at a discount on Coinbase for 61 straight days. The Block counted more than $1.1B of net outflows from major crypto ETFs this week.
The talk of the past few days has been Hyperliquid whale shorts. Crypto Briefing reported that large Hyperliquid accounts hold their most Bitcoin shorts since October 2025, about $892M to $924M, against roughly $454M to $483M of longs. Citing Glassnode, it said whales flipped from net long to net short two weeks ago. The report put the largest single short's entry near 76,390. We traced it to 0x5b5d…c060: $178M at 5x, entry 76,390, up $1.48M.
0x4b62 cut 80%; 0x6c2c closed and reopened
Last time we wrote that two 40x Bitcoin shorts worth $29.5M combined sat 1.1% and 1.3% from liquidation. A day later, the two wallets did different things.
Between 00:01 and 20:58 UTC on Saturday, 0x4b62…57ca closed $37.25M of shorts in four batches for a $115,000 loss, reopening $18.27M along the way. Net, it's now short just $3.17M at 40x, entry 75,713, liquidation 76,669. Its account is down to $78,000, and it's lost $1.67M since opening it.
At 15:55 UTC on Saturday, 0x6c2c…a201 closed $11.2M of shorts, this time for a $10,000 profit. Five hours later, between 20:52 and 21:07 UTC, it reopened $11.5M at 40x, entry 75,599, liquidation 76,550, 1.0% above the price. Its account is $265,000, and it's down $68,000 since opening it.
So the shorts closest above the price shrank from $29.5M to about $14.7M. That's why we marked our Bitcoin call "case weakened."
On the other side, 0x92cb…859c added $4.9M of shorts on Saturday and is now short $8.47M, entry 76,900, up $127,000. 0xdc51…6ef7 still holds its $13.64M short from 75,243, down $93,000.
The longs below: one more joined on Saturday
| Wallet | Position | Leverage | Entry | Liquidation | From price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5e07…9fea | $11.36M | 40x | 76,134 | 74,200 | −2.1% |
| 0x95fe…f8fa | $15.23M | 40x | 77,021 | 74,057 | −2.2% |
| 0xd412…be0b | $15.15M | 20x | 75,595 | 73,093 | −3.5% |
| 0xbac6…71cb | $10.02M | 40x | 75,867 | 72,905 | −3.8% |
| 0x7c4b…e00b | $15.15M | 40x | 75,855 | 72,825 | −3.9% |
| 0xf081…e39e | $53.16M | 30x | 77,820 | 71,893 | −5.1% |
0x5e07 added $3.78M of longs between 20:35 and 20:52 UTC on Saturday, moving its liquidation to 74,200, right next to 0x95fe. In the 150 points between 74,050 and 74,200, two 40x longs hold $26.6M. 0xbac6 cut $2.58M at 05:18 UTC, pushing its line from 73,691 down to 72,905.
0xf081 is down $9.45M this month. Its Bitcoin long is down $1.44M, and it also holds an $8.14M HYPE long with liquidation at 73.60.
Above, 0x54c5…9558 still holds its $18.1M short, entry 79,184, liquidation 79,576, up $818,000.
A new wallet: long Bitcoin, short ETH, $13M each
0x45d7…00ca appeared on Saturday with a $2.62M account. It's long $13.09M of Bitcoin (entry 75,762) and short $13.08M of ETH (entry 2,234), both at 20x. With both legs the same size, it isn't betting on direction. It's betting ETH underperforms Bitcoin.
Saturday's large ETH orders leaned the same way: $15.1M net sold, while Bitcoin's large orders were flat.
ETH, HYPE, SOL and memes
ETH (2,235): 0x984e…14c2, the short we named last time, closed $4.72M between 21:58 and 23:59 UTC on Saturday for a $25,000 loss. It has $2.44M left, and its liquidation moved from 2,291 up to 2,482. The 2,280 area didn't empty out, though. At 20:54 UTC on Saturday, 0x834c…dd93 opened a new $7.82M short at 25x, entry 2,225, liquidation 2,282, 2.1% above, on a $327,000 account.
Below, 0xbb34…1696 still holds its $6.15M long with liquidation at 2,183, 2.3% below. It's up $1.69M since opening the account but down $2.21M this month.
0x524e…0de0, from our last post, bought back $12.33M of ETH at 2,235 on Friday and sold all of it at 15:53 UTC on Saturday for an $8,472 loss. It's now flat. 0xe813…6d74 hasn't touched its $45.31M long, entry 2,222, up $256,000.
Off Hyperliquid, TronWeekly reported that address 0x32c6 bought 8,773.5 ETH for $19.7M in USDT on Saturday, at about 2,245. CryptoTicker said spot ETH ETFs are on a sixth straight week of net outflows.
HYPE (77.65): AMBCrypto reported that HyperLabs moved about 179,000 HYPE (around $14.5M) to six team wallets within 24 hours. Over the same period, the protocol bought back and burned about 21,000 HYPE at an average of 77.93.
On chain, Saturday's large HYPE orders were $3.0M net sold. 0xe2ad…3c8c cut its long by $8.1M and shorted $6.35M of ZEC, now up $136,000. 0x082e…ca88 hasn't touched its $107M long, entry 38.68, up $53.75M. Its liquidation shifted slightly from 71.87 to 71.09, 8.4% below. It's given back $10.73M on paper this month.
0x5b5d's $57.38M HYPE short is still a hedge. Between 00:00 and 02:26 UTC on Saturday it added $471,000 of shorts and bought $471,000 of spot, one for one.
SOL (89.19): 0x5b5f…c052 still holds its $1.07M short on a $61,000 account, liquidation 91.95, 3.1% above. 0x5b5d is short $56.71M from 94.33, up $3.28M, and hasn't reduced. SOL open interest fell 4.2% on Saturday. Funding averaged −1.3% annualized yesterday and is +2.0% now. Long liquidations within 5% below add up to only $273,000.
Invezz reported on Friday that SOL broke below 90, a two-month low, with analysts watching support at 89–90 and 87.21.
Memes: Broadly lower on Saturday. PUMP fell 5.0%, with open interest down 19.3% and funding at −24% annualized, so shorts are paying. Citing CoinGlass, The Crypto Times reported that as of 16:36 UTC Saturday, PUMP was down 10.2% over 24 hours with $3.23M liquidated, almost all longs. CoinMarketCap's update page notes that Valour launched a PUMP ETP in Sweden on November 5. 0x5b5d is short $2.91M of PUMP, up $768,000.
On the calendar
- November 9: Elysium, a Hyperliquid ecosystem L2, launches its mainnet (PANews).
- November 10, 13:30 UTC: US October CPI. Three of today's four calls end before it's released, to stay clear of that move.
- November 11: MSCI publishes its exclusion list for digital asset companies.
Today's calls
Same rules: we make the call today, score it later, right or wrong. Prices as of about 01:50 UTC. The nine open calls above still stand. These are new.
Bitcoin (75,760): before 13:30 UTC on November 10 (the CPI release), hits 76,560 before 74,950.
- Why: 0x6c2c's $11.5M short is just 1.0% from liquidation on a $265,000 account. It was already liquidated around here once on Friday, then closed and reopened on Saturday. Funding is +11% annualized, weekend volume is thin, and a 1% move is enough to touch the line.
- Against: Whale net shorts are at their highest since October 2025, and the largest single short, $178M, has an entry of 76,390, only 0.8% above. ETFs lost about $842M on Thursday and Friday. And 0x4b62 just showed that thin-account shorts cut on their own, so this line may be pulled before it's hit.
ETH (2,235): at Friday's close, November 13, ETH/BTC is below 0.0295 (about 0.02950 now).
- Why: ETH large orders were $15.1M net sold on Saturday while Bitcoin was flat. That's exactly the bet the new wallet 0x45d7 made with its $13M pair trade. 0x834c opened a $7.82M short, and 0x524e sold all its longs. Spot ETH ETFs are on a sixth week of outflows.
- Against: 0xe813's $45.31M long hasn't moved, and off-exchange someone bought 8,773 ETH at 2,245. Bitcoin ETFs are bleeding too. If Bitcoin squeezes up to 76,560 first, ETH outrunning it wouldn't be surprising.
SOL (89.19): holds 87.21 until 13:30 UTC on November 10 (the CPI release).
- Why: Only $273,000 of long liquidations sit within 5% below, so there's no fuel for a cascade. Funding has turned back slightly positive, and shorts aren't adding. Saturday's low of 88.69 is still 1.7% above 87.21.
- Against: SOL has fallen six weeks in a row, 0x5b5d hasn't trimmed its $56.71M short, open interest fell 4.2% on Saturday, and large orders were $1.1M net sold. Monday before CPI can still move.
HYPE (77.65): doesn't trade above 80 until 13:30 UTC on November 10 (the CPI release).
- Why: Team wallets just received about $14.5M of HYPE, Saturday's large orders were $3.0M net sold, and 0xe2ad cut $8.1M of longs in a day. There are no short liquidations within 10% above, so no squeeze fuel.
- Against: The protocol buys back and burns HYPE every day, at an average of 77.93, right at the price. Saturday's high of 79.58 is only 2.5% from 80. Elysium launches Monday, and Hyperliquid Strategies' FCM application is still pending.
Live liquidation maps: BTC · ETH · HYPE · SOL. Tap the 🔔 next to a wallet's name to get a Telegram alert when it moves.
Data: Hyperliquid on-chain fills, liquidations and positions, compiled by CryptoAnimon. "Saturday" = November 7, 2026 (UTC). Positions and prices as of about 01:45 UTC on November 8. Chart uses November 7 data.
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