Bitcoin barely moved, but open interest rose nearly 5%. Two 40x shorts sit 1.1% and 1.3% from liquidation, with $58.2M of longs lined up below
Scoring our last calls
Scored as of November 7, 01:30 UTC. Our last post is only about three and a half hours old, so the November 6 calls have barely moved.
| Call | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin hits 82,000 before 79,500 by Sunday's close (Nov 5) | 79,500 came first. | ✗ |
| ETH hits 2,392 before 2,520 by Saturday's close (Nov 5) | 2,392 came first, on Nov 5 at 12:40 UTC. 2,520 still not reached. | ✓ |
| ETH holds 2,156 through Friday (earlier call) | Low through Friday's close: 2,205. | ✓ |
| SOL doesn't close above 100 before Sunday (Nov 5) | Highest close since the call: 90.09. | Open |
| HYPE holds 75 until November 9 | Low 76.15. | Open |
| Bitcoin hits 73,500 before 79,500 by November 13 (Nov 6) | Since Nov 6, 22:00 UTC: high 76,191, low 75,834. | Open |
| ETH hits 2,170 before 2,400 by November 13 (Nov 6) | Same window: high 2,253, low 2,235. | Open |
| SOL hits 85.50 before 97.50 by November 13 (Nov 6) | Same window: high 90.64, low 89.88. | Open |
| Memes keep weakening until Bitcoin reaches 73,500 (Nov 6) | Memes rose modestly Friday; kPEPE gained 3.9%. | Open, going against us |
Two right, one wrong, six open. The meme call is going against us for now, and we're recording it that way.
Friday in one line
Bitcoin fell 0.32% to 75,835, trading only between 74,842 and 76,400. ETH rose 0.03% to 2,238, SOL 0.89% to 90.09, HYPE 2.47% to 78.49. Liquidations came to $36.5M, about an eighth of Thursday's $283M: $23.2M of longs and $13.3M of shorts.
Leverage didn't leave, though. Bitcoin open interest rose about 4.5% in 24 hours to $3.2B. With the price nearly flat, that's about 4.8% in coin terms.
US stocks split on Friday. Fox Business had the Nasdaq up 1.09%, the S&P 500 up 0.31% and the Dow down 0.46% at the close. October payrolls rose by 165,000 against about 65,000 expected, and unemployment was 4.1%. Yahoo Finance said the S&P still had its worst week since June. Bitcoin didn't follow the Nasdaq up. That's what we observed, and we aren't naming a cause.
On flows, CoinCentral, citing Farside, reported $430.2M of net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs on Thursday. Bloomingbit, citing Cointelegraph, said 2026 flows have turned negative at $415.9M. We hadn't found Friday's figures at publication.
Two 40x Bitcoin shorts, 1.1% and 1.3% from liquidation
Last time we asked whether 0x4b62…57ca, under 1% from liquidation, could get out. So far it hasn't been liquidated. It did two things:
- It moved in $1.16M across four transfers between Thursday 15:09 and Friday 13:36 UTC.
- At 00:01 UTC today it closed $15.95M of its short at a loss of $89,000. That wasn't a liquidation. Two minutes later it reopened 159 BTC.
After that cut, its liquidation line moved from 76,618 up to 76,906, 1.3% above the price.
It's now short $18.3M at 40x, entry 75,740, with a $470,000 account. It's down $1.67M since it opened the account.
It isn't alone. 0x6c2c…a201 only started funding on November 2. It has already traded $327M on a $260,000 account. Between 00:02 and 00:45 UTC on Friday, $2.98M of its short was liquidated at an average of 76,298, for a loss of about $41,000. At 15:47 that day it went short again: $11.23M at 40x, entry 75,778, liquidation 76,735, 1.1% above the price.
At 13:29 UTC on Friday, one minute before the jobs report, both wallets were closing Bitcoin shorts. We found no direct transfers between them, so all we can say is that their timing looks similar, not that they're the same trader.
Together they hold $29.5M. If that line gets hit, it means forced buying.
The longs below: many added on Friday
| Wallet | Position | Leverage | Entry | Liquidation | From price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x95fe…f8fa | $15.26M | 40x | 77,021 | 74,034 | −2.5% |
| 0xbac6…71cb | $12.62M | 40x | 75,867 | 73,691 | −2.9% |
| 0xd412…be0b | $15.18M | 20x | 75,595 | 73,070 | −3.7% |
| 0x7c4b…e00b | $15.18M | 40x | 75,855 | 72,802 | −4.1% |
| 0xf081…e39e | $53.25M | 30x | 77,820 | 71,870 | −5.3% |
The first four total $58.2M. 0xbac6, 0xd412 and 0x7c4b all opened or added on Friday, and all three are down since they opened their accounts: 0x7c4b by $3.36M, 0xd412 by $700,000, 0xbac6 by $390,000. 0xf081 is down $9.21M.
Higher up, 0x54c5…9558 is short $18.13M from 79,184 at 40x, liquidation 79,554, up $790,000.
Who made money
- 0xdc51…6ef7 started shorting ETH (2,392), Bitcoin (79,641) and NEAR from 12:47 UTC on Thursday and began closing at 18:13. Those three trades made $576,000. On Friday it shorted $13.66M of Bitcoin at 75,243 and 30x, and is down $116,000 on that so far.
- 0x524e…0de0 sold its ETH long at 2,344 on Thursday for a $433,000 gain, then bought back $12.33M at 2,235 on Friday. It's up $41,000.
- 0x5b5d…c060 made about $101M in the past 30 days and is up $222M since it opened the account. Since Friday it has closed part of its ETH short for $157,000 and added $2M to its Bitcoin short.
ETH, HYPE, SOL and memes
ETH (2,243): Two bets sit close together. 0x984e…14c2 closed a long at a $102,000 loss on Friday and flipped to a $7.18M short at 20x, entry 2,226, liquidation 2,291, 2.1% above. 0xbb34…1696 holds a $6.17M long at 25x, entry 2,288, liquidation 2,182, 2.7% below.
AMBCrypto wrote about a "100% win rate" trader's 25x long of 20,277 ETH, which matches 0xe813…6d74. We grouped its closes since September 19 into rounds, merging same-coin closes less than 6 hours apart. All 7 rounds were profitable, about $6.38M in total before fees. The current position is $45.47M, entry 2,222, up $410,000.
The same report put spot ETH ETF outflows at $270M in the first days of November. Bloomingbit recorded $99.97M of outflows on Thursday. CoinCentral, citing Lookonchain on November 3, said Bitmine holds 6.065M ETH, 4.96% of supply.
HYPE (79.01): 0x5b5d is short $57.31M of HYPE, but this isn't a bearish bet. It holds 622,000 HYPE in spot and 104,000 staked, about 726,000 in all, almost exactly matching its 726,000 short. That short has collected about $8.23M in funding so far. Since Friday it has added $2.31M to the short and bought $2.30M of spot, so the hedge is still growing.
The real directional bet is 0x082e…ca88: a $109M long, entry 38.68, up $55.52M, liquidation 71.87, 9% below. 0xf081's $8.28M long liquidates at 73.58.
crypto.news reported that listed company Hyperliquid Strategies disclosed in its Q3 results that it has applied, through a subsidiary, to register as a US futures commission merchant, subject to regulatory approval. It posted $620.6M of Q3 net income and held about 38.9M HYPE as of October 28.
SOL (90.35): Open interest rose 7.3% on Friday. Funding swung from a +6.6% annualized average the day before to −7.6% now, so shorts are paying. 0x5b5f…c052 opened a $1.09M short at 20x at 20:25 UTC on Friday, on an account under $50,000, with liquidation at 91.95, 1.8% above. 0x5b5d is short $61.82M from 94.33, up $2.78M, and hasn't cut since Friday. FXStreet (via TMGM) said SOL is on its sixth straight weekly decline, spot ETFs lost $71.47M last week, and it's watching 87.21 below.
Memes: A report carried by Yahoo Finance said the TRUMP coin fell to a record low of $1.12 on Thursday, with a market cap near $340M, more than 98% below its January 2025 peak. It didn't make a new low on Friday. On Hyperliquid, TRUMP rose 2.0%, kPEPE 3.9%, FARTCOIN 3.8%, DOGE 1.8% and PUMP 1.3%. 24/7 Wall St. had PEPE up 9.3% in 24 hours and DOGE up 1.7%. 0x5b5d remains short $3.59M of DOGE, $3.61M of PUMP and $1.95M of FARTCOIN, all in profit.
Today's calls
Same rule: we call it today, score it later, and right is right, wrong is wrong. Prices are as of about 01:30 UTC. The four calls from November 6 still stand. These are new, shorter-term calls.
Bitcoin (75,900): hits 76,950 before 74,030 by Monday's close, November 9.
- Why: $29.5M of 40x shorts sit just 1.1% to 1.3% above, on thin accounts. 0x6c2c was already liquidated in this area on Friday. The nearest large line below, 74,034, needs a 2.5% drop.
- Against: Large orders net sold $32.4M on Friday, and ETFs are still seeing outflows. 0x4b62 moved in $1.16M over two days. It tops up margin and cuts size on its own, so this line may keep moving up.
ETH (2,243): hits 2,291 before 2,182 by Tuesday's close, November 10.
- Why: 0x984e's $7.18M short sits on a $300,000 account, just 2.1% away. Buyers met the 2,205 and 2,208 lows on Thursday and Friday, with 0xe813 and 0x524e both buying in that area.
- Against: ETFs keep seeing outflows, and large orders net sold $8.1M on Friday. If Bitcoin falls first, ETH won't reach 2,291.
SOL (90.35): hits 92 before 87.21 by Tuesday's close, November 10.
- Why: Open interest is rising and funding has turned negative, so shorts are starting to pay. 0x5b5f's liquidation line is just 1.8% away.
- Against: SOL has fallen six straight weeks, and the $61.82M short hasn't been cut. The forced buying at the 91.95 line is only about $1.1M, which may not be enough to push price.
HYPE (79.01): holds 71.87 through Friday's close, November 13.
- Why: 0x082e moved in funds during Thursday's drop, taking its liquidation line from 74.70 to 71.87, and it has a large unrealized gain. The largest HYPE short on chain is a hedge, not a directional bet.
- Against: 71.87 is only 9% away. Another day like Thursday's 8.58% drop would nearly reach it. 0x082e has already given back $14.51M on paper this week.
Live liquidation charts: BTC · ETH · HYPE · SOL. Today's live bets are on the signals page. Tap the 🔔 next to a wallet name to get a Telegram alert when it moves.
Data: Hyperliquid on-chain fills, liquidations and positions, compiled by CryptoAnimon. "Friday" = November 6, 2026 (UTC). Positions and prices as of about November 7, 01:30 UTC. Chart uses November 6 data.
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