Headlines said this trader lost $15M. The chain says $220K. Now it's short $22M at 40x, under 1% from liquidation
Scoring our last calls
These are the calls from the November 5 analysis, scored as of November 6, 22:05 UTC.
| Call | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin hits 82,000 before 79,500 by Sunday's close | 79,500 came first. High 80,521, low 74,842. | ✗ |
| ETH hits 2,392 before 2,520 by Saturday's close | 2,392 came first, on Nov 5 at 12:40 UTC. 2,520 not reached yet. | Open |
| SOL doesn't close above 100 before Sunday | High 96.94. | Open |
| ETH holds 2,156 through Friday | Low 2,205, about 2 hours left. | Open |
| HYPE holds 75 until November 9 | Low 76.15. | Open |
One wrong, four open. We expected a run to 82,000. Bitcoin fell 5.5% that day.
Thursday in one line
Bitcoin fell 5.47% to 76,078, ETH 7.71% to 2,237, SOL 6.57% to 89.29, HYPE 8.58% to 76.59. Liquidations hit $283M: $272.3M of longs and $10.7M of shorts. Bitcoin longs lost $76.1M to liquidation, shorts $2.6M, with $36.3M in the 15:00 UTC hour alone.
US stocks fell the same day. CNBC called it the major averages' worst day since April 2025, with the Dow off about 1,800 points. CoinDesk quoted an analyst tying it to post-midterm worries about data center buildouts. That's the press's reading. We only see the timing.
0x4b62: headline vs chain, 70 times apart
On Thursday, one story spread fast: a trader liquidated eight times, losing 201 BTC. BeInCrypto (via Mitrade) ran "Bitcoin Trader Lost $15 Million in Minutes." TheStreet pointed to 0x4b62…57ca and cited about $220,000 of realized losses from Hyperbot.
We checked the fills on chain:
| Day | Position liquidated | Actual loss on those liquidations |
|---|---|---|
| Wednesday (BTC short) | $29.3M | −$558,000 |
| Thursday (BTC long) | $12.3M | −$220,000 |
What got liquidated was position size, not loss. Its last long closed at 15:26 UTC on Thursday. One minute later it opened a short.
It isn't a winner either. Counting its other trades and fees, it lost about $650,000 net on Thursday, and it's down $1.71M since it opened the account.
Now: a $22.2M 40x Bitcoin short, entry 75,490, liquidation 76,618, just 0.7% above the price. Account $440,000, down $167,000 on the trade.
Who made money
- 0x5b5d…c060 made about $41.3M on Thursday, the day's top wallet. It's short $179M of Bitcoin, $175M of ETH and $61.9M of SOL. It gave back about $2.15M today.
- 0xfce0…f4c0 added to its ETH short at 2,430, about eight hours before the crash, and made $338,000 on Thursday. It kept adding near 2,242 today. It now holds $4.94M, average 2,293, liquidation 2,752.
Bitcoin: where things break
- Below: 0xf081…e39e holds a $53.4M 30x long, entry 77,820, down $1.23M. It added today and topped up margin, moving its liquidation from about 73,500 on the chart to 71,867. It's down $9.12M since it opened the account.
- Above: 0x4b62's $22.2M at 76,618. 0x54c5…9558's $18.2M at 79,551, up $746,000.
- Dip buyer: 0x41f9…9017 is long $1M from 75,350 at 20x, up $9,300.
ETH, HYPE, SOL and memes
ETH (2,244): Bitmine, the company holding the most ETH, says it stops buying at a 5% cap, and Decrypt reports it's close. Big money sits on both sides: 0xe813…6d74 bought $45.5M at 2,222 and is up $437,000, while 0x5b5d is short $175M from 2,323 and up $6.15M. Between 2,222 and 2,323, both win. 0x0deb…0bc5 is long $1.57M from 2,071, didn't sell in the crash, and is up $121,000.
HYPE (78.58): 0x082e…ca88 hasn't traded the HYPE perp since December 2025. It holds $108M, up $55M, liquidation 71.86. During Thursday's drop it moved in $3.57M, in three transfers. The Block reported earlier that NYSE owner ICE plans Hyperliquid-based perps for the US, pending approval. 0xac26…a9c7 is also long from around 38 and still trades.
SOL (90.36): 0x5b5d is short $61.9M from 94.33. In our data pack snapshot, only $167,000 of longs get liquidated between 85.50 and 86. 0x80f2…0c3a bought $380,000 at 89.20 on Thursday and sold at 90.33 today.
Memes: The Block reported TRUMP down more than 20% in two days, an all-time low. PUMP fell 8.79% on Hyperliquid on Thursday. 0x05a4…4eba is short TRUMP from 1.95, now 1.22, though the position is only about $18,000.
Today's calls
Same rules: we call it, then we score it. Prices are from about 22:05 UTC. These calls run until the close on Friday, November 13, except HYPE.
Bitcoin (76,055): 73,500 first, then 79,500.
- Why: about $128M of longs get liquidated within 5% below, against about $37M of shorts within 5% above. After that, the $18.2M short near 79,500 is the bounce target.
- Against: Bitcoin steadied near 76,000 today, and 0xf081 moved its line lower, so the downside is less fragile.
ETH (2,244): 2,170 first, then 2,400.
- Why: Bitmine is near its cap and 0xfce0 keeps adding. 2,170 is still above 0x0deb's entry.
- Against: 0xe813 just bought $45.5M and is winning, so the drop may stop short of 2,170.
SOL (90.36): 85.50 first, then 97.50.
- Why: big shorts have the upper hand. At 97.50, 0x5b5d's $61.9M short would be down about $2.17M.
- Against: almost no forced selling sits near 85.50, so a drop may lack fuel.
Memes: stay weak until Bitcoin finds 73,500.
- Against: TRUMP is already at a record low, and crowded shorts can bounce.
Still open: HYPE holds 75 until November 9. Price 78.58. One more day like Thursday would break 75 and reach 0x082e's area near 71.86.
Live liquidation maps: BTC · ETH · HYPE · SOL. Live bets on the signal page. Tap the 🔔 next to a wallet and Telegram tells you when it moves.
Data: Hyperliquid on-chain fills, liquidations and positions, compiled by CryptoAnimon. "Thursday" = November 5, 2026 (UTC). Positions and prices as of about November 6, 22:05 UTC. Chart uses November 5 data.
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