Binance was hacked and Bitcoin fell 4%, liquidating $218M of longs. Now $43M of 40x shorts sit within 1% above the price
Scoring yesterday's calls
From publication at 05:00 UTC on Oct 29 to 03:45 UTC today.
| Call | What happened | Score |
|---|---|---|
| BTC: within 24 hours, 0x4b62's 79,398 before 0x92a7's 80,861 | Bitcoin went up first. 80,861 was hit at 14:35 UTC, and the high was 81,955 at 16:05. 79,398 only came at 20:40. | ✗ |
| ETH: 0xb15b survives to Friday's close, and ETH's mark doesn't touch 2,348 | ETH hit 2,348 at 14:35 UTC and reached 2,378. 0xb15b survived only by buying back $2.3M of its short at 2,350 to 2,371. | ✗ |
| SOL: no touch of 98.04 before Friday's close | At 20:40 UTC SOL fell through it, and 0x13da's long was liquidated. Low 92.23. | ✗ |
| HYPE: 84 first, then below 78, before Friday's close | 84 came at 10:44 UTC. Then HYPE ran to 97.11. Below 78 would take a 15% fall today. | Open |
| CoreWeave holds Monday's low of 51.21 through Friday | Low 56.47, now 57.77. | Open |
0 for 3. Two days without a wrong call, then three wrong in one day. We said we'd score it either way.
Yesterday in one line
Bitcoin fell 4.15% to 77,947, ETH 4.5% to 2,252, SOL 6.6% to 95.61. HYPE went the other way: up 10.4% to 88.96. Hyperliquid liquidated $247.9M, and $217.8M of it was longs. Bitcoin alone was $111.2M.
HYPE: up 10% on the ICE news, 1% short of its record
At 10:30 UTC the parent of the New York Stock Exchange, ICE, [announced a stake in Trade[XYZ]](https://ir.theice.com/press/news-details/2026/Intercontinental-Exchange-and-TradeXYZ-to-Bring-Hyperliquid-Based-Perpetual-Markets-Onshore/default.aspx) and a plan for regulated US perpetual markets built on Hyperliquid. It still needs CFTC approval. HYPE went from 79.3 to 84 in fifteen minutes and kept going, to 97.11 at 16:30 UTC. The record is 98.00, from Sept 23.
Open interest rose 24% in a day. Large trades bought a net $34.6M of HYPE, the only major coin with net buying. Longs now pay 182% a year in funding to hold.
The top buyer bought right at the top. 0x97f8…89d9 received $10.9M at 16:11 UTC. Within twenty minutes it had bought $20M of HYPE longs at 95.95 to 96.75, and the high came at 16:30. It's down $790K.
The Binance hack, minute by minute
That night Binance was hacked. Totals reported so far range from $3.3B to $5.8B. Here is the timeline from the on-chain data, as reported by CoinDesk and CryptoTicker, next to Bitcoin on Hyperliquid:
| UTC | Binance | Bitcoin on Hyperliquid |
|---|---|---|
| 20:20 | A hot wallet is delegated to an outside contract (EIP-7702) by an address funded through Tornado Cash | 80,400 |
| 20:24 | 167,464 ETH, 1.6B USDT and 60+ other tokens leave that wallet | 80,350 |
| 20:35 to 20:40 | 79,860 → 78,843 in five minutes | |
| 20:41 | A second transfer: 780M USDC | |
| 21:15 | Binance says it is investigating; CZ: "User funds are safe! It does look like a hack on Binance." | 79,270 |
| 00:04 | Yi He: Binance will cover all hacking losses; deposits and withdrawals paused |
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 perps on Hyperliquid barely moved. Bitcoin didn't stop at 78,000. The low was 76,443 at 02:05 UTC today. Tether and Circle have frozen about $1.8B of the stolen stablecoins.
Three big longs were liquidated within four minutes of each other:
- 20:41: 0x13da…08be, the 20x SOL long we named yesterday with liquidation at 98.07. $10.3M liquidated at 97.79, a $282K loss. Then it switched coins: it now holds a 10x HYPE short, $2.2M at 93.07.
- 20:42: 0x95fe…f8fa. It had sold HYPE longs that afternoon for $391K profit and put the money into ETH longs. $9.0M of ETH was liquidated at 2,255, a $347K loss. At 02:10 UTC it went 40x long $15.6M of Bitcoin at 77,021, liquidation 75,872.
- 20:45: 0xedab…3370, $5.5M of Bitcoin longs at 78,319.
The $99M short from an empty wallet
0x8add…7d2c had been empty since it withdrew in July. Then, as the Binance news spread:
- Between 21:04 and 22:32 UTC it received $5.5M.
- Between 21:40 and 22:00 it shorted $49M of Bitcoin at 40x (around 78,940) and $50M of ETH at 25x (around 2,271).
- It's up $1.6M. Liquidation is 86,653 on Bitcoin and 2,468 on ETH, both more than 11% away.
0x4b62, day three
0x4b62…57ca is the 40x Bitcoin wallet we've written about two days running. Yesterday it was long, liquidation 79,398. It didn't wait for that:
- 13:10 to 14:20 UTC: sold the long at 80,183 to 80,411, down $125K.
- 14:40: shorted $36.5M at 81,216 and bought it back at 80,952, up $119K. Then shorted again at 81,509, up another $163K.
- 21:30, after the drop: went long $24.4M at 79,538. Bitcoin kept falling. At 23:40 it sold at 78,311, down $375K, and flipped short in the same minute.
- Now: short $37.8M at 40x, entry 77,289, liquidation 78,436. Down $334K.
Since our last article it has lost about $110K on closed trades. It also took $500K out and put $1.27M back in.
$43M of 40x shorts, stacked right above Bitcoin
An hour ago there were three, $67M in all. At 03:36 UTC 0x396d…5899 bought back its $23M 40x short at 78,000, 176 points before liquidation, for a $313K loss. Its last fills printed 78,033, the hour's high.
At 77,924, two are left within 0.7%:
- 0xb15b…dbae: 40x short $5.0M, liquidation 78,296. It has been trimming.
- 0x4b62: 40x short $37.9M, liquidation 78,436.
Below, it's further away and bigger:
- 2.5% below: 0x95fe and 0xa6e2…c49f, two 40x longs totaling $25.3M, liquidation 75,872 to 75,965.
- 4.2% below: 0x9e2c…5508, 25x long $42.9M, and 0x0c4a…1b19, 40x long $19.3M, both near 74,490.
- 10% below: 0xf081…e39e, 30x long $76.0M from 80,951, down $3.0M, liquidation 69,980.
ETH, SOL and HYPE
ETH (2,226): 0xb15b shorted again on the way down and now holds $2.8M at 25x, liquidation 2,242, 0.7% above the price. Shorts are the crowded side: funding is −37% a year, so shorts are paying longs. The biggest short is 0x8add's $49M. Below, 0x1ee7…edf5 and 0x0c4a are long $27.1M at 25x, liquidating at 2,069 to 2,082.
SOL (96.7): large trades sold a net $22.1M, 45% of large-trade volume, the most one-sided of any major coin. With 0x13da gone, there's no large SOL liquidation nearby. Yesterday's range was 92.23 to 103.17.
HYPE (92.4): no large short liquidations within 5% above. The nearest is 0x13da's new short at 97.6. Below: 0x795c…a242 10x long $4.5M, liquidation 88.1; 0x9546…181c 10x long $17.5M, liquidation 83.4.
Today's calls
Same rules: we call it, we score it tomorrow, right or wrong. Prices as of 03:45 UTC.
BTC (77,924): range 75,900 to 78,500, leaning up. Within 24 hours, 0x4b62's 78,436 is hit before 0x95fe's 75,872.
- Why: $43M of 40x shorts are stacked within 0.7% above. 0x396d's $23M buyback printed the hour's high. A forced buyback of $37.9M would be bigger. The longs below are 2.5% or more away.
- Against us: large trades sold a net $243.9M of Bitcoin yesterday, the most in weeks, and 0x8add just put $49M on the short side.
ETH (2,226): within 24 hours, 2,300 before 2,150.
- Why: funding is −37%, shorts are crowded, and 0xb15b's short is 0.7% from liquidation. If Bitcoin's shorts get squeezed, ETH comes along.
- Against us: 0x8add's $49M short, and large trades sold a net $52.7M yesterday.
HYPE (92.4): before Monday's close, a new record above 98.00 before a drop to 88.
- Why: HYPE was the only major coin with net large buying, and open interest rose 24% in a day on real news.
- Against us: funding of 182% a year is expensive to hold. And 0x97f8, $20M long at 96, may sell as soon as it's back to breakeven.
SOL (96.7): no close above 100 before Monday's close.
- Why: large trades sold 45% one way, and SOL fell the most of the four.
- Against us: if Bitcoin squeezes, SOL moves with it.
Yesterday's HYPE and CoreWeave calls settle at today's close.
Live liquidation maps: BTC · ETH · HYPE · SOL. Tap 🔔 next to a wallet's title to get a Telegram alert when it moves.
Data: Hyperliquid on-chain trades, liquidations, positions and account ledgers, compiled by CryptoAnimon. "Yesterday" = Oct 29, 2026 (UTC). Positions, liquidation prices and prices as of about 03:45 UTC on Oct 30. Large trades = single taker trades of $100K or more, excluding market makers and liquidation backstops. Scoring uses highs and lows from 05:00 UTC Oct 29 to 03:45 UTC Oct 30.
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