Brazil voted on Sunday. Hyperliquid's Brazil ETF perp fell 29% before Brazil's markets opened
Scoring yesterday's calls
From the calls published at 09:40 UTC Oct 25 to 02:20 UTC today.
| Call | What happened | Score |
|---|---|---|
| BTC 78,500–81,500, bearish: trades below 78,940 before above 81,500 | Neither yet. High 80,927, low 79,347. The range held. | open (carried) |
| Weekend: 77,528 is not touched before 00:00 UTC Monday | The low was 79,347. | ✓ |
| ETH 2,280–2,400, bearish: touches 2,310 before 2,400 | Hit 2,310 at 01:35 UTC today. High was 2,364. | ✓ |
| HYPE 73.5–78, neutral | 75.37–77.48. | ✓ |
| SOL 97.5–103, bearish: touches 97.97 before 103 | Neither yet. 100.36–102.23. | open (carried) |
| Unitree perp stays above 90 until Shanghai opens Monday | Low before the open: 90.70. Close call. | ✓ |
4 of 4 decided calls right, 2 still open. It was a quiet Sunday for crypto. The action was somewhere else.
Yesterday in one line
Bitcoin lost 0.9% to 80,108 and ETH lost 1.2% to 2,329. Hyperliquid liquidations fell to $3.9M, from $135.3M the day before. The busiest market on the site, relative to normal, was not a coin. It was Brazil.
Brazil voted, and Hyperliquid traded it first
Brazil held its presidential runoff on Sunday, Oct 25. Polls closed at 22:00 UTC. According to The Rio Times, Lula won about 51.8% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.2%, with the lead changing hands during the count. The same outlet reported that dollar futures jumped about 10% against the real on Sunday evening, as investors who had hoped for a more market-friendly government repriced.
Brazil's stock exchange was closed. So was Wall Street. Hyperliquid's xyz:EWZ perp, which tracks the iShares Brazil ETF, was open.
- At Friday's Wall Street close it was about 42.77. Over the weekend traders pushed it up to 46.30 at 20:05 UTC Sunday.
- From 22:00 UTC, when the polls closed, it fell to 42.585. Then it sat at exactly 42.585 for over an hour, dropped to exactly 40.456, and sat there too. Those are two steps of 5% each. Trades kept printing at one price, which looks more like a per-move limit than like a market finding a level.
- At 00:05 UTC the step gave way. In five minutes the perp fell to 32.63, then bounced to about 35. That was the minute Tokyo opened, where a listed Ibovespa ETF fell more than 11%.
- Sunday's volume was $21.5M, 29.5 times normal, from 674 wallets.
It now trades at 34.93: 18% below Friday's close and 25% below Sunday's high.
The short who sold into the flat line
0x888e…6d77 waited until the votes were in. Between 22:10 and 23:20 UTC it shorted $2.56M of EWZ at 20x, isolated, all at 42.585 and 40.456. It was selling into the flat line while the price was stuck.
At 00:05:45 UTC, $1.06M of that short was closed for it at 36.04 by auto-deleveraging. That is what Hyperliquid does when a liquidated position can't be absorbed by the market: it closes a winning position on the other side to cover it. The units match exactly. The long it was matched against was 0x1813's, below. The short made $173K on that piece, and $56K more closing $220K at about 33.5 by itself.
It still holds an $875K short from 41.89, up $175K. In total, about $405K on an $884K account.
Three longs who were still in at 00:05
- 0x5f96…d6ca bought about $2.2M at an average of 42.60. It was liquidated at 00:05:09 UTC at 40.456 and lost $109K.
- 0x1813…a42e bought $633K over the weekend at about 45.2, betting before the result. It was liquidated at 00:05:45 at 36.04 and lost $209K. At 01:54 it opened a small short instead.
- 0xc255…b368 bought the first dip, $309K at 42.585 at 22:10 UTC. It was liquidated at 36.04 and lost $50K.
The four wallets all saw the same news. The difference was the side, and the leverage.
Today's calls
Same rules: we make the call, we score it tomorrow, right is right and wrong is wrong. Prices as of 02:20 UTC.
EWZ: when the Brazil ETF opens on Wall Street at 13:30 UTC today, it opens above 35.00. Hyperliquid's perp is at 34.93.
- Why: the analysts quoted by Futu News warned the real could fall at least 7% and the Ibovespa about 10%. Together that is about 16% in dollars, which points to about 35.9. The perp has already priced 18%. Our bet is that thin Sunday trading overshot.
BTC (79,678): range 78,300–81,000, bearish. Bitcoin trades below 78,905 before it trades above 81,000. (carried, updated)
- Why: the 40x longs are still there. 0x2f59…d982 holds $10.6M with liquidation at 78,905, and 0x92a7…3fea holds $18.3M at 78,371. Below them, 0x0c4a…1b19's $24.3M 40x long is down $807K, liquidation 77,044.
- Large orders were net sellers of $36.5M of Bitcoin yesterday.
- Above, the nearest short liquidation is 0xa4de…b3c4's $8.0M at 82,659. 0xc3ed…00dd, the whale that flipped short two days ago, now holds $31.9M at 30x, up $300K, liquidation 83,906.
ETH (2,307): range 2,260–2,370, neutral. Machi's 2,293 goes before 0xb15b's 2,345.
- Machi Big Brother holds 72 ETH at 25x with liquidation at 2,293, 0.6% below. The account holds $4,319.
- 0xb15b…dbae holds a $9.5M short at 25x with liquidation at 2,345, 1.6% above. It is up $205K.
- 0xe813…6d74, the $54M ETH buyer from yesterday's piece, is now down $801K on $62.2M.
HYPE (75.87): range 74–78, neutral. No short liquidations within 10% above. 0xcfe2…8fb3's $15.2M long from 79.0 is down $622K.
SOL (100.98): range 98–103, bearish. SOL touches 97.98 before 103. (carried) 0x13da…08be's $9.7M 20x long liquidates at 97.98. It is up $39K.
Live liquidation maps: EWZ · BTC · ETH · HYPE · SOL. Tap the 🔔 next to a wallet page's title to get a Telegram alert when that wallet moves.
Data: Hyperliquid on-chain trades, liquidations, positions and account history, compiled by CryptoAnimon. "Yesterday" = Oct 25, 2026 (UTC). Positions, liquidation prices and current prices as of about 02:20 UTC Oct 26. Wallet P&L from each wallet's Hyperliquid fills. Large orders = single taker trades of $100K or more, excluding market makers and liquidation backstops. Scoring uses highs and lows from 09:40 UTC Oct 25 to 02:20 UTC Oct 26.
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