Musk said neoclouds face "guppy-level death". On Hyperliquid, the CoreWeave shorts got squeezed
Scoring yesterday's calls
From the calls published at 02:20 UTC Oct 26 to 03:45 UTC today.
| Call | What happened | Score |
|---|---|---|
| EWZ opens on Wall Street above 35.00 | It opened about 26% down, near 31.6 (InfoMoney). Brazil's own market hit a circuit breaker. Sunday hadn't overshot. Wall Street went further. | ✗ |
| BTC trades below 78,905 before above 81,000 | Neither, for the third day: 79,348–80,835. We retire it. | no score |
| ETH: Machi's 2,293 goes before 0xb15b's 2,345 | Low 2,292.6 at 03:50 UTC. The high was 2,344.4, missing 2,345 by 0.6. Machi wasn't in it anymore: he sold his ETH himself between 01:37 and 13:58 UTC. | ✓ |
| HYPE 74–78, neutral | It broke out, to 80.56 at 17:35 UTC. | ✗ |
| SOL touches 97.98 before 103 | Neither yet: 99.85–102.70. | open (carried) |
1 of 3 decided calls right. The Brazil call was the big miss.
Yesterday in one line
Bitcoin closed flat at 80,110, ETH −0.2% at 2,323, HYPE +2.7% at 78.23, SOL −0.4%. Hyperliquid liquidations were $22.6M, $16.1M of it longs. After Bitcoin and Brazil, the third-biggest liquidation market was not a coin. It was CoreWeave.
Musk's "guppy-level death"
On Sunday Musk said SpaceX had lined up about $40 billion to pay for Nvidia chips, and added that the "200+ neoclouds", the companies that rent out GPUs, face "guppy-level death and consolidation". According to Decrypt, the money comes through an Apollo-managed entity that buys the chips and leases them to SpaceX. CoreWeave is the biggest name on that list of 200.
Wall Street was closed. Hyperliquid's xyz:CRWV perp was not.
- Sunday evening it sat around 55. When Asia opened at 00:00 UTC Monday, it started sliding.
- By 11:10 UTC it was at 51.21, down about 7% from Sunday. Yahoo Finance had CoreWeave down only about 2.7% premarket.
- Then Wall Street opened at 13:30 UTC, and the stock went the other way. By 15:20 UTC the perp was at 57.80, up 13% from the low. Benzinga had the stock up 5.5% at $57.23.
- On Hyperliquid, $1.1M of CoreWeave shorts were liquidated, against $501K of longs.
The short who traded the headline
0x38f9…709a moved at 02:29 UTC Monday. It shorted $216K of Nebius, another neocloud, and from 02:33 UTC it shorted $764K of CoreWeave at an average of 53.62.
The price went its way for eight hours. Then New York opened. At 14:49 UTC, 79 minutes after the bell, the whole short was liquidated at 56.36. The loss was $39K, small in dollars but about a third of the account. It had already closed Nebius at a $1.7K loss.
It kept trading. It bought Brazil, a chip ETF and Brent oil the same afternoon, and now holds a $666K Brazil ETF long at 9x. Its account is $77.7K.
The short who was already there
0xefe4…194b did not need Musk. It had been short CoreWeave since at least late September, adding about $1.3M of shorts at around 85 between Sept 21 and 29.
On Sunday evening, from 20:46 UTC, it started buying back. Over Sunday night and Monday it closed about $1.85M of shorts at an average of about 54.5, in more than 11,000 small fills, until there was nothing left. Booked profit: $1.44M.
It is a big, diversified account: $33.7M on the stocks side, and on the main side a $47.6M Bitcoin long.
Same headline, two wallets. One shorted the news and got squeezed. One had shorted a month earlier and used the news to get out.
Today's calls
Same rules: we make the call, we score it tomorrow, right is right and wrong is wrong. Prices as of 03:45 UTC. The Fed decides on Wednesday at 18:00 UTC. CME FedWatch puts a hold at about 90%.
CRWV (56.06): Monday's low of 51.21 holds through Friday's close.
- Why: the panic sold first and the stock bought it back the same day. The two biggest shorts still open are low-leverage books: 0xfc66…ca06 holds $2.6M short from 56.39 at 2x, and 0x49e9…e1d0 $615K from 56.26 at 3x. Nobody is forced out on either side nearby.
BTC (79,907): range 78,900–81,900, bullish. 0x92a7's 81,870 goes before 0x2f59's 78,928, before the Fed.
- Why: two 40x shorts sit within 3% above. 0x92a7…3fea, a $18.3M long in yesterday's piece, is now a $15.7M short with liquidation at 81,870. 0x4b62…57ca was liquidated on a $1.9M piece at 15:21 UTC yesterday and is back with $18.6M, liquidation 82,355.
- Against us: large orders were net sellers of $42.5M of Bitcoin yesterday.
- Below: 0x2f59…d982 holds $10.6M at 40x, liquidation 78,928. 0xf081…e39e added $12.7M yesterday and now holds a $63.5M long at 30x from 81,169, down $1.0M, liquidation 75,421.
ETH (2,318): range 2,280–2,360. 0xb15b's 2,345 goes before 2,280.
- 0xb15b…dbae holds a $9.5M short at 25x, up $166K, liquidation 2,345.5. Yesterday's high missed it by 1.1.
- Behind it, 0x9e2c…5508 holds $17.5M short at 25x, liquidation 2,418.
HYPE (77.74): range 75–81, bullish. HYPE trades above 80.5 again before it trades below 75.
- Why: whale wallets sent 494K HYPE to Coinbase over the weekend, per AMBCrypto, and HYPE still broke out to 80.56. Large orders net bought $2.6M yesterday.
- 0x082e…ca88 holds a $107M long at 5x from 38.68, up $53.8M. 0xcfe2…8fb3's $15.5M long from 79.0 is down $261K.
SOL (100.28): range 98–103, bearish. SOL touches 98.0 before 103. (carried) 0x13da…08be's $9.6M 20x long from 100.55 is down $27K, liquidation 98.01.
Live liquidation maps: CRWV · BTC · ETH · HYPE · SOL. Tap the 🔔 next to a wallet page's title to get a Telegram alert when that wallet moves.
Data: Hyperliquid on-chain trades, liquidations, positions and account history, compiled by CryptoAnimon. "Yesterday" = Oct 26, 2026 (UTC). Positions, liquidation prices and current prices as of about 03:45 UTC Oct 27. Wallet P&L from each wallet's Hyperliquid fills. Large orders = single taker trades of $100K or more, excluding market makers and liquidation backstops. Scoring uses highs and lows from 02:20 UTC Oct 26 to 03:45 UTC Oct 27.
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