Two Hyperliquid whales just bet $40M each on Bitcoin at 30x — their liquidation prices are $132 apart
Scoring yesterday's calls
From the calls published at 03:00 UTC Oct 23 to 07:00 UTC today.
| Call | What happened | Score |
|---|---|---|
| BTC 80,100–83,000, bearish: trades below 80,239 before above 83,000 | The range held: high 82,088, low 80,500 (23:00 UTC). But 80,239 never printed, and 0x5e07's 40x long is still alive. | ½ |
| ETH 2,340–2,460, bearish: touches Machi's 2,354 before 2,460 | Hit 2,349.4 at 22:45 UTC, below Machi's liquidation price. He survived by selling 260 ETH on the way down (a $24K loss), which moved his liquidation to 2,336.9. | ✓ |
| HYPE 75.7–80, neutral | 76.10–78.83. | ✓ |
| SOL 101.5–107, neutral | 101.64–105.20. | ✓ |
| Apple perp: 0x795c's 20x short is liquidated before Friday's close | Apple peaked at 351.62, 0.3% short of its 352.85 liquidation. The $12.57M short is still open. | ✗ |
| Moderna perp stays below 225 until Saturday's ESMO presentation | High so far 206.79. ESMO starts at 14:30 UTC today; final score tomorrow. | ✓ (so far) |
4½ of 6. Apple came within a hair again — the second day in a row our stock call missed.
Yesterday in one line
Bitcoin slipped just 0.3% to 81,180 and ETH was flat at 2,386. Hyperliquid liquidations fell to $47.4M, down about 60% from the day before, with $42.9M of that on longs. Most of the damage came in a 20-minute drop from 22:48 to 23:11 UTC, when Bitcoin slid from about 81,300 to 80,500. The biggest single hit was a $1.9M long at 0xd745…ec4c.
The day's biggest mover was Unitree: the robot maker hit Shanghai's 20% daily limit, and its Hyperliquid perp rose 24.9% — more than the stock itself was allowed to. Full story in today's news.
Two $40M longs on the same line
Bitcoin went nowhere, but two wallets made big bets:
| Wallet | Now | Entry | Liquidation | Unrealized |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xf081…e39e | $39.8M long at 30x | 81,791 | 77,396 | −$499K |
| 0xc3ed…00dd | $40.4M long at 30x | 81,676 | 77,528 | −$449K |
| 0x0c4a…1b19 | $24.6M long at 40x | 82,333 | 77,007 | −$473K |
0xf081 is a new wallet. Its first deposit was on Oct 16, and before yesterday it had only traded small stock perps. In the hour after 12:00 UTC it bought $40.3M of Bitcoin at an average of 81,791. The account holds $2.14M.
0xc3ed was in yesterday's piece. On Wednesday it shorted between 84,300 and 84,700 and made $333K. On Thursday it flipped to a $24.5M long at 40x. Yesterday it added another $16.3M. It now holds a $40.4M long on a $2.11M account.
Their liquidation prices are $132 apart. Add 0x0c4a and $104.8M of liquidations sit between 77,007 and 77,528, about 4% below the current price.
All three are running the same play: buy back after a big drop. The catch is that 30x leaves room for only a 3.3% move against them.
The Tesla whale had a bad day
0x30af…393e, the Tesla whale we've followed all week, flipped twice. Between 01:00 and 02:00 UTC it closed its entire $17.7M short on the DRAM memory-stock perp for a loss of about $448K. It then went long Bitcoin and ETH, $19M in total. When Bitcoin dropped at 22:00 UTC, it closed those too, losing another $190K. It now holds nothing.
Another wallet is betting both ways at once. Besides the 40x Bitcoin long above, 0x0c4a…1b19 opened a $14.1M crude oil short yesterday and now holds $20.2M short at 20x, liquidation 107.48. Oil down, crypto up.
Today's calls
Same rules: we make the call, we score it tomorrow, right is right and wrong is wrong. Prices as of 07:00 UTC.
BTC (80,778): range 79,800–82,100, bearish. Bitcoin trades below 80,269 before it trades above 82,100.
- Why: 0x5e07's 40x long liquidates at 80,269, just 0.6% away, and 0x2f59's 33x long sits at 79,875. Only $5.6M of short liquidations sit within 5% above. Nothing is there to squeeze the price up.
- A weekend bonus call: 77,528 is not touched before 00:00 UTC Monday. The $104.8M band is 4% away. Weekend liquidity is thin, but we don't think it's thin enough to get there.
- Further down: 0x36cd…d195 cut its 10x long from $70M to $50.8M, moving its liquidation down to 72,925.
ETH (2,378): range 2,330–2,430, bearish. ETH touches 2,342 before 2,430.
- 0xe02e…d78b has an $11.9M long at 25x, liquidation 2,341.9. Machi Big Brother has 315 ETH left, liquidation 2,336.9. The two lines are $5 apart.
- Large orders were net sellers of $18.7M of ETH yesterday, the most of any coin.
HYPE (76.97): range 75.5–79, bearish. 0x13da…08be's $9.96M 10x long liquidates at 75.75, and we think it gets hit first. Large orders were net sellers of $5M of HYPE yesterday, 39% of large-order volume. Further down sits 0x082e…ca88's $106M long, liquidation 71.72. It entered at 38.68 and is up $52.9M, so it's in no hurry.
SOL (102.2): range 100–105, neutral. No large liquidation lines nearby.
Moderna perp: bounces after today's ESMO presentation and is above 200 at 00:00 UTC Sunday. The leak already knocked it down 20%. We think the full data is the other shoe dropping, not a new shock.
Unitree perp: stays above 90 until Shanghai opens on Monday.
Live liquidation maps: BTC · ETH · HYPE · Unitree. Tap the 🔔 next to a wallet page's title to get a Telegram alert when that wallet moves.
Data: Hyperliquid on-chain trades, liquidations, positions and account history, compiled by CryptoAnimon. "Yesterday" = Oct 23, 2026 (UTC). Positions, liquidation prices and current prices as of about 07:00 UTC Oct 24. Liquidations count only the liquidated side. Large orders = single taker trades of $100K or more, excluding market makers and liquidation backstops. Scoring uses highs and lows from 03:00 UTC Oct 23 to 07:00 UTC Oct 24.
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