The 40x short we named was liquidated an hour after we published. Now $178M of Bitcoin shorts sit in profit, and the big longs from 80K are selling
Scoring yesterday's calls
From publication at 04:00 UTC on Oct 30 to 03:10 UTC today.
| Call | What happened | Score |
|---|---|---|
| BTC: within 24 hours, 0x4b62's 78,436 before 0x95fe's 75,872 | Bitcoin hit 78,436 at 05:00 UTC. 0x4b62's 40x short was liquidated at 05:03. The low since was 76,264; 75,872 never came. | ✓ |
| ETH: within 24 hours, 2,300 before 2,150 | Neither. ETH stayed between 2,207 and 2,261 all day. | ✗ |
| HYPE (from Oct 29): 84 first, then below 78, before Friday's close | 84 came. The low after was 78.48, 0.6% short. | ✗ |
| CoreWeave holds Monday's low of 51.21 through Friday | Low 53.48. | ✓ |
| HYPE: before Monday's close, a record above 98.00 before a drop to 88 | High since 94.11. Low 88.88, less than 1 point from 88. | Open |
| SOL: no close above 100 before Monday's close | High since 98.51. | Open |
2 for 4. The Bitcoin call was right within the hour. The ETH call was right about nothing: ETH barely moved.
Yesterday in one line
A quiet day after the hack. Bitcoin fell 0.78% to 77,338, ETH 0.36% to 2,244. SOL rose 0.70% to 96.27 and HYPE 1.15% to 89.96. Hyperliquid liquidated $215.4M, and $178.3M of it was longs. Large trades sold a net $113.6M of Bitcoin.
Binance: withdrawals due back Sunday
Binance puts the hack at $6.3B, and CNBC calls it the largest crypto theft on record. Deposits never stopped. Binance says it will cover the losses and is on track to reopen withdrawals in about 45 hours, which The Crypto Times puts at around 05:47 UTC on Sunday, Nov 1.
On Hyperliquid, two coins moved on the hack itself:
- BNB fell from 744 to 670 in the hour after the 20:20 UTC drain, down 10%. It's 705 now.
- TRX went the other way. It jumped from 0.329 to 0.365 in the next hour, up 11%, and traded 21 times its normal volume the next day. It has given all of it back: 0.326 now.
0x4b62, day four: liquidated as called, then made it back
0x4b62…57ca is the 40x Bitcoin wallet we've followed all week. Yesterday we wrote that its short would be liquidated at 78,436 before anything else happened. It was:
- 05:03 UTC: $13.7M short liquidated around 78,560, a $222K loss.
- It didn't stop. It shorted three more times during the day, at 77,190, 77,570 and 76,800, and closed them for +$229K in all.
- 19:50 UTC: flipped long $23.5M at 76,912. Sold it at 01:20 UTC around 77,460, +$173K.
- 01:30 UTC: long again. Now 40x long $17.2M of Bitcoin, entry 77,394, liquidation 76,157, plus a 25x ETH long of $4.5M, liquidation 2,114.
Net since our last article: about +$200K, liquidation included. It also moved $590K out of its perp account. Equity left: $560K, behind $21.7M of positions.
0x13da: three liquidations in 22 hours
0x13da…08be had a different day.
- Oct 29, 20:41 UTC: its 20x SOL long, $10.3M, liquidated in the Binance drop.
- Oct 30, 07:00: closed its HYPE short and went long $8.9M of Bitcoin at 78,597. Liquidated at 09:24, down $115K.
- Shorted, closed for +$12K, went long again $5.0M at 77,429. Liquidated at 18:50, down $72K.
The account is now empty.
The shorts from 80K are winning. The longs from 80K are selling
The two biggest Bitcoin shorts were both opened near 80,000, and both are in profit:
- 0xfc27…9d9d: $130.4M short at 25x, entry 80,244, up $5.0M. Liquidation 87,326, 13% above. It also holds about two dozen smaller positions; most of that money is short too, in XRP, ETH, SOL and ZEC.
- 0x8add…7d2c: the empty wallet that woke up during the hack. $48.0M Bitcoin short at 40x from 78,939 and $49.4M ETH short from 2,271. Up $1.7M in a day and a half.
The big longs opened above 80,000 are going the other way:
- 0x6046…b21d sold $43.5M of its Bitcoin long yesterday around 77,086. It still holds $51.9M from 81,993, down $3.2M, and $35.7M of ETH from 2,410, down $2.7M.
- 0x77dd…e0e9 sold $39.4M of its ETH long around 2,205. It still holds $68.7M from 2,610, down $11.3M. Liquidation 2,122, 5.3% below.
- 0xf081…e39e hasn't sold. $75.4M at 30x from 80,951, down $3.6M, liquidation 70,002. Yesterday it added a $13.2M HYPE long at 90.09.
Near the price, it's lopsided. Above, only $3.6M of 40x shorts within 1%: 0xb15b…dbae at 77,940. Below, $32.7M of 40x longs within 1.8%: 0x4b62 at 76,157 and 0x95fe…f8fa at 75,894. Then the Tesla whale 0x30af…393e, which bought $25.0M of Bitcoin yesterday, at 75,172.
ETH, HYPE and SOL
ETH (2,241): the longs are the ones under pressure. 0x77dd's $68.7M liquidates at 2,122. 0x1ee7…edf5 is long $16.8M at 25x, liquidation 2,100. Above, the nearest short liquidation is 0xb15b's small $0.7M at 2,332. Funding turned from −13% to +9.5% a year.
HYPE (89.3): the funding bill came down from 182% to 62% a year. The buyer who bought the top, 0x97f8…89d9, still holds $18.6M from 96.18, down $1.44M, with plenty of margin. 0x9546…181c is long $19.8M from 84.57, up $1.05M, liquidation 84.92, 4.9% below.
SOL (96.7): range 93.5 to 98.5 since yesterday. No large liquidation within 5%.
Today's calls
Same rules: we call it, we score it tomorrow, right or wrong. Prices as of 03:10 UTC.
BTC (77,300): within 24 hours, 0x4b62's 76,157 is hit before 0xb15b's 77,940.
- Why: $32.7M of 40x longs sit within 1.8% below, against $3.6M of shorts within 1% above. Large trades sold a net $113.6M yesterday, and the longs from 80K are still selling.
- Against us: it's the weekend, and 0x4b62 changes sides every few hours. Its liquidation price moves with it.
ETH (2,241): stays between 2,180 and 2,300 through Sunday's close.
- Why: since our last article ETH has moved only 54 points, 2,207 to 2,261. The big sellers are trimming, not dumping.
- Against us: 0x77dd still has $68.7M to sell, and its liquidation is 5.3% away.
Binance reopens withdrawals before 12:00 UTC on Sunday.
- Why: it has said so twice, and deposits never stopped.
- Against us: it has also found more breach points since the first statement.
- We're hoping we get this one right.
Intel perp: no trade at 70 or above before Monday's US close. The story is in today's Intel article.
Still open: HYPE (record before 88, by Monday) and SOL (no close above 100, by Monday). HYPE is less than 1% from losing that one.
Live liquidation maps: BTC · ETH · HYPE · SOL. Tap 🔔 next to a wallet's title to get a Telegram alert when it moves.
Data: Hyperliquid on-chain trades, liquidations, positions and account ledgers, compiled by CryptoAnimon. "Yesterday" = Oct 30, 2026 (UTC). Positions, liquidation prices and prices as of about 03:10 UTC on Oct 31. Large trades = single taker trades of $100K or more, excluding market makers and liquidation backstops. Scoring uses highs and lows from 04:00 UTC Oct 30 to 03:10 UTC Oct 31. Binance figures as reported by CNBC and The Crypto Times.
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