On HYPE, time is on the longs' side

We took every closed HYPE round on Hyperliquid — 14,959 of them — and sorted them by how long the position was held. Longs held for six months or more won 81.9% of the time. Shorts held just as long won 50.0%: a coin flip, with a median result of -$503.

The full table

Each row is a group of rounds: one wallet, one position, from open to fully closed. "Market alone" is explained in the next section.

Held	Side	Rounds	Win rate	Market alone	Median P&L	Total P&L
< 1 week	long	5,336	58.4%	45.2%	$559	$20.8M
1 week – 1 month	long	2,653	63.5%	57.0%	$3K	$61.3M
1 – 3 months	long	823	73.1%	67.3%	$9K	$44.1M
3 – 6 months	long	168	81.0%	75.0%	$24K	$28.8M
6 months +	long	72	81.9%	87.5%	$18K	$14.4M
< 1 week	short	4,123	57.2%	36.6%	$383	$3.6M
1 week – 1 month	short	1,266	58.8%	47.5%	$2K	-$4.2M
1 – 3 months	short	371	60.4%	48.8%	$3K	-$49.6M
3 – 6 months	short	87	57.5%	52.9%	$3K	-$4.4M
6 months +	short	60	50.0%	28.3%	-$503	-$15.3M

The longer a long was held, the more often it won — 58.4% under a week, 81.9% past six months. The typical short, on the other hand, never gets much better with time.

How much of this was just the chart

HYPE started our data window at $43.34 (2025-07-27), fell as low as $20.86 (2026-01-21), peaked at $95.65 (2026-09-22) and now trades around $90.92. A coin that roughly doubles rewards anyone who holds it long.

So for every round we also asked: if you had done nothing clever — just opened the same side on the same day and closed on the same day — how often would the price have moved your way? That is the "Market alone" column.

• Long-held longs mostly rode the chart. Six-month-plus longs won 81.9%; simply holding HYPE long over the same windows would have won 87.5%. Their edge was patience in a rising market, not timing.
• Short-term traders beat the market — by a lot. Under a week, longs won 58.4% against 45.2% for the market alone, and shorts won 57.2% against 36.6%. That gap is something the chart alone did not give them. But the typical short-term round made only $559.
• Shorts lost money while winning more often than not. Shorts held one to three months won 60.4% of their rounds — and still lost $49.6M in total. Small wins, a few enormous losses. That is the pattern behind why win rate lies.

So what

1. Holding a HYPE short for months has meant fighting the trend. In this period it cost the group $69.9M.
2. An 80%+ win rate on long-held HYPE longs is mostly the chart. Before crediting a wallet with skill, compare it with just holding HYPE. Our wallet pages show mark-to-market profit so you can.
3. The traders who actually beat the market are short-term — and their median round is small. Following them means paying fees on many small edges. Our copy-cost breakdown shows which ones survive that.

The raw data

The HYPE coin page has this table, updated daily, plus every large wallet trading HYPE right now: HYPE on CryptoAnimon. Every wallet links out to Hyperliquid's own explorer.

How we compute it

A round is one address in one coin, from the moment the position opens from zero until it returns to zero; adds and trims stay inside the round. Only rounds with more than $100K traded and closed before 2026-09-23 are counted. Market makers and liquidation backstops are excluded. "Market alone" compares the HYPE price on the round's open day with its close day, in the round's direction. P&L is marked to market.